Trading Blogers

JB3 here…divbr //divdivThe various potential triangles I was watching in various currencies were not to be. The people on the other side of my triangle plays made some money off me these past few days./divdivbr //divdivWhat I’m fairly confident about is that these utterly wild moves in various currency pairs are NOT new trends. These recent huge moves have all the earmarks of stops being run all the way up to the top of Mt Everest. /divdivbr //divdivAs I speak I think the EUR/USD may be finishing it’s blowoff at around 1.443, but may require one more down-up to exhaust itself. In any event the top isn’t far off, IMO. Hat tip to Kemal for alerting me to this./divdivbr //divdivAnother thing is for sure, these violent moves in the currencies…. plus Treasuries rocketing skyward… plus plus plus…. does not, in my view, paint a picture of a healthy, functional market that has found it’s legs and is ready to set off on an interim term up leg./divdivbr //divdivStaying short./div

Fed day followed by an usual Fed Pattern?br /br /If you were a bear, which one you would prefer. According to the Fed pattern, there were two possibilities today before the decision:br /1- Rally on Fed decision and reversal next day to sell off minimum 100 points in coming daysbr /2- Sell off on Fed decision and upside reversal next day that may bring 50-100 points on the upside in a few daysbr /br /Today was interesting because desperate Bulls who mostly calling for 1000+ for the last few weeks really wanted to see me down despite SP couldn’t even test last weeks high. While they kept telling me why SP didn’t drop 400 points by now and how my calls were wrong, the fact of the matter is SP couldn’t even test last weeks high. Then why this emotional surge? I think the answer is right here:br /br /a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ZdctlOEsqMQ/SUiBiZTTmiI/AAAAAAAABTg/VZKICi9TtBc/s1600-h/dc_capital_05+Dec.+16+23.33.gif”img style=”cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 259px; height: 248px;” src=”http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ZdctlOEsqMQ/SUiBiZTTmiI/AAAAAAAABTg/VZKICi9TtBc/s400/dc_capital_05+Dec.+16+23.33.gif” border=”0″ alt=”"id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5280612990999304738″ //abr /br /You see them? They have been bullish like this for weeks now and all SP did was trading between 820-920. Something wrong? I know exactly what is the heck wrong but it is hard to explain to the masses because the most common and frequent deception , I stress the word “deception” , in a bear market is to think that general conditions can change on one or two interventions. I am afraid you will now watch it crater on all time low interest rates which is near zero. Like the logic? I thought so. br /br /In a bear market, bears always have the upper hand because aside from short term moves and corrections, they continuously accumulate wealth until general conditions change (transition to bull market) br /br /I don’t think it is necessary to remind people that I am not a day trader. I will not close this position unless Market tells me otherwise, until the intermediate term conditions I follow met. I did not close it when I was up 50 because it was premature. I will not close it here because it is proven nothing but another fluctuation.br /br /You wanna see something else? br /br /a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ZdctlOEsqMQ/SUiBifiXLZI/AAAAAAAABTo/VH_rf4Wndnc/s1600-h/dc_capital_06+Dec.+16+23.33.gif”img style=”cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 309px;” src=”http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ZdctlOEsqMQ/SUiBifiXLZI/AAAAAAAABTo/VH_rf4Wndnc/s400/dc_capital_06+Dec.+16+23.33.gif” border=”0″ alt=”"id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5280612992673066386″ //abr /br /And the day is still not over… that bar will get bigger by 12:00 ETbr /br /Edit:br /br /Let me squeeze a quick quiz over here. What happens if the cash index opens below todays break out level shown by the black TLbr /br /a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ZdctlOEsqMQ/SUiNW-tSjzI/AAAAAAAABT4/SvmuRhj_qmc/s1600-h/dc_capital_09+Dec.+17+00.18.gif”img style=”cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 241px;” src=”http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ZdctlOEsqMQ/SUiNW-tSjzI/AAAAAAAABT4/SvmuRhj_qmc/s400/dc_capital_09+Dec.+17+00.18.gif” border=”0″ alt=”"id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5280625989021503282″ //abr /br /1- Nothing will happen, we will keep rallyingbr /2- There will be some roasted liver in breakfast but nothing big. br /3- It will be like CA2 video… liver and guts spread all over the place