Trading Blogers

I had posted this chart in September 2008 and a href=”http://xtrends.blogspot.com/2008/09/gold.html”told you Gold should bottom between 650-700/abr /br /I guess it bottomed out right below 700 in November 08.br /br /a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ZdctlOEsqMQ/SX09MPkujZI/AAAAAAAABbM/yaSrDszpqcg/s1600-h/DC_Capital_06+Jan.+25+23.30.gif”img style=”cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 237px;” src=”http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ZdctlOEsqMQ/SX09MPkujZI/AAAAAAAABbM/yaSrDszpqcg/s400/DC_Capital_06+Jan.+25+23.30.gif” border=”0″ alt=”"id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5295456017405873554″ //abr /a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ZdctlOEsqMQ/SX09L1_CKyI/AAAAAAAABbE/8PHJMonRkDI/s1600-h/DC_Capital_05+Jan.+25+23.30.gif”img style=”cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 238px;” src=”http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ZdctlOEsqMQ/SX09L1_CKyI/AAAAAAAABbE/8PHJMonRkDI/s400/DC_Capital_05+Jan.+25+23.30.gif” border=”0″ alt=”"id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5295456010536889122″ //a

a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ZdctlOEsqMQ/SX0xPOfd7dI/AAAAAAAABas/T2kbi1HXfr0/s1600-h/DC_Capital_03+Jan.+25+22.41.gif”img style=”cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 240px;” src=”http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ZdctlOEsqMQ/SX0xPOfd7dI/AAAAAAAABas/T2kbi1HXfr0/s400/DC_Capital_03+Jan.+25+22.41.gif” border=”0″ alt=”"id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5295442874515451346″ //abr /a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ZdctlOEsqMQ/SX0xPEdR9TI/AAAAAAAABak/LhgI6KMmzMI/s1600-h/DC_Capital_02+Jan.+25+22.31.gif”img style=”cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 238px;” src=”http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ZdctlOEsqMQ/SX0xPEdR9TI/AAAAAAAABak/LhgI6KMmzMI/s400/DC_Capital_02+Jan.+25+22.31.gif” border=”0″ alt=”"id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5295442871821923634″ //abr /a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ZdctlOEsqMQ/SX0xO4mxnAI/AAAAAAAABac/G2mimeSolNQ/s1600-h/DC_Capital_01+Jan.+25+22.19.gif”img style=”cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 393px;” src=”http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ZdctlOEsqMQ/SX0xO4mxnAI/AAAAAAAABac/G2mimeSolNQ/s400/DC_Capital_01+Jan.+25+22.19.gif” border=”0″ alt=”"id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5295442868640521218″ //abr /a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ZdctlOEsqMQ/SX0xv92GyWI/AAAAAAAABa8/hQv_U8nABKQ/s1600-h/DC_Capital_04+Jan.+25+22.44.gif”img style=”cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 253px; height: 169px;” src=”http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ZdctlOEsqMQ/SX0xv92GyWI/AAAAAAAABa8/hQv_U8nABKQ/s400/DC_Capital_04+Jan.+25+22.44.gif” border=”0″ alt=”"id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5295443436982684002″ //a

Sol posted a very important chart that has implications for all equities and economy going forward.br /br /Before I start, take a look at the following chart of TLT. (TLT is an ETF tracking 20yr treasury bonds).br /br /a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ZdctlOEsqMQ/SXk_61CAeRI/AAAAAAAABYY/9Su1ss1ZBiE/s1600-h/DC_Capital_01+Jan.+22+22.55.gif”img style=”cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 239px;” src=”http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ZdctlOEsqMQ/SXk_61CAeRI/AAAAAAAABYY/9Su1ss1ZBiE/s400/DC_Capital_01+Jan.+22+22.55.gif” border=”0″ alt=”"id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5294333116851190034″ //abr /br /You can see the breakaway gap from the other corner of your room can’t you? That breakaway gap on TLT corresponds to the massive breakdown on $TNX. For those who dont know how these instruments move, they usually move in the opposite directions. $TNX is 10 year bond yield, TLT is a bond ETF. Although TLT is more related to the longer term maturity debt (20 year), it does move in the opposite direction of $TNX most of the time.br /br /Technically what the above chart simply implies that the bonds will soon rise as they test a longterm channel breakout that accompanied with a longterm breakdown on $TNX. This is a direct indication of deflation and implies that the current situation is nothing like you or your grandpa has seen before (Because of the importance of the breakouts/breakdowns on very long term scales). Such situation seen in Japan in 90s. If you want to know what happened to them, do a little research.br /br /One of the reasons I have been shifting away from my bullish stand for a bear market rally was this.br /br /object width=”425″ height=”344″param name=”movie” value=”http://www.youtube.com/v/BSvFVIyRDgshl=enfs=1″/paramparam name=”allowFullScreen” value=”true”/paramparam name=”allowscriptaccess” value=”always”/paramembed src=”http://www.youtube.com/v/BSvFVIyRDgshl=enfs=1″ type=”application/x-shockwave-flash” allowscriptaccess=”always” allowfullscreen=”true” width=”425″ height=”344″/embed/object

Noticed the first signs yesterday before I put the hedges on. Unfortunately I observed more of the same today that forced me to put second hedge although intraday timing was little off again. br /br /Now you have to listen carefully. The short covering rallies which are quite deceptive can be a cause-building because unfortunately market can not move away from what I consider a very important pivot around 800. I did not want to carry big contracts with such a market that closes near this important level consecutively. So I am only left with ES and ETF longs that are fully hedged via YMH9 and I am waiting for the market to tell me what to do next. I do not have a very clear read on the market at the moment. I am waiting for the certain occurrences to take place in order to move ahead decisively. br /br /I will post another update after the close as we are at an important juncture.