Trading Blogers

I just want to drop a quick note that this range (ES=778-772) can act like a short term support again as it is a proven xTrends point that already produced 30+ points rally. xTrends almost always produce reaction when tested first time.br /br /The thing is we are now testing it second time but the time difference between the tests are very short implying that these tests can be considered as one. br /br /Sol knows this and he closed another position to reduce the risk. It is a wise decision considering his account size. However the countdown for the big event started as of today and we have 3- months to get it. br /br /As per our conversations with Sol, he let you know that, too many equities and sectors achieved their monthly and quarterly targets when SPX tested 830, implying a major reversal. This usually blossom into another swing move which should be the final leg of this bear market considering the larger picture. br /br /Therefore, as an intermediate term trader, I stay short until Market proves the otherwise.div class=”blogger-post-footer”img width=’1′ height=’1′ src=’http://res1.blogblog.com/tracker/2192317321691025209-8310560781296735540?l=xtrends.blogspot.com’//div

When the bad guys are out of the game, it appears to be my relationship with Ms Market is improving. Like I said, PPT is no longer a factor to watch. It will be only you and Ms Market.br /br /Those who think the trends can change on a dime are due for a big lesson now. br /br /Market unloaded on every piece of good economic news so why the sentiment stay blatantly bullish? Is it because it will swing from this extreme to the other during the terminal?div class=”blogger-post-footer”img width=’1′ height=’1′ src=’http://res1.blogblog.com/tracker/2192317321691025209-8133923871645963289?l=xtrends.blogspot.com’//div

It will be only me and Ms Market !br /br /Like I said yesterday, from now on, PPT and all of its extensions will be out of the equation.br /From here on, I believe the market will show distinct behavior as its natural forces work their way to achieve true fair values across the sectors.br /br /1- In this stage, the sectors with less damage will show increasing weakness without any news and other obvious reason. br /br /2- Leadership sectors of this bear market (financials, real estate …) will show increasing strength relative to their past performances. br /br /3- Sentiment will be horrific among retail investors. br /br /4- There will be more political witch hunting, increasing efforts to calm public, which in turn will force government to seek for sacrifices, to find more sin-goats across the industry. br /br /br /To be continued…br /br /Edit:br /Here is a stock that will look like AIG chart soonbr /br /a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ZdctlOEsqMQ/Scl_-AH1EaI/AAAAAAAABj4/q4mtOw4RlO0/s1600-h/DC_Capital_02+Mar.+24+20.48.gif”img style=”cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 235px;” src=”http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ZdctlOEsqMQ/Scl_-AH1EaI/AAAAAAAABj4/q4mtOw4RlO0/s400/DC_Capital_02+Mar.+24+20.48.gif” border=”0″ alt=”"id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5316921538249036194″ //adiv class=”blogger-post-footer”img width=’1′ height=’1′ src=’http://res1.blogblog.com/tracker/2192317321691025209-8458242080248166551?l=xtrends.blogspot.com’//div

It was a huge short squeeze that wiped out the bearish sentiment and excess shorts. It was a manufactured move in which the core sector, financials couldn’t make a higher high while the most of the indices and sectors did. Volume was low for a 7% day. br /If you were short heavily like me, there was nothing to do but reduce your exposure as the market rallied. After the midday pause, it was obvious that there would be another attempt to ramp it up, to close near the best levels. There will be another attempt tomorrow which I expect it to fail. We will probably gap down then rally into midday to reverse later. I expect it to be a doji tomorrow. br /br /I traded this market on the short side since mid 2007 all the way down to 670 where I had covered my previous positions. Charts have been my guide, they never lied to me. Charts of many sectors and indices are telling a long term story that doesn’t fit with the current sentiment and action. Therefore this shall pass soon, just like a day following night, spring following winter. br /br /Starting at 720, I shorted it upto 800 on Fed day last week. I had to close those positions I opened on Fed day as SPX broke through 800 today. I will put them back tomorrow, probably midday. From Dow Jones Transportation to Health-care to Bio-tech to Nasdaq-100 , many sectors and indices have recently broken their long term trends and there will be consequences. I had posted some of them before if you care to check now. br /br /Tomorrow will be another day but it will be a quite different. Different than all the days since this bear market began. Tomorrow we all know there can no longer be intervention. No manipulation or any kind. Different in a sense that from here on, it will only be me and the market.div class=”blogger-post-footer”img width=’1′ height=’1′ src=’http://res1.blogblog.com/tracker/2192317321691025209-7445759825717548110?l=xtrends.blogspot.com’//div

If the market can not sustain the gains on this, I believe this piece of news will be the beginning of the end. In other word’s, if this doesn’t work out as planned, which I strongly believe it will not, then there will be absolutely nothing, not a crust of intervention or any sort of hope whatsoever, left to elevate this market.br /br /I have been waiting for this final try that’s destined to fail. This will open the door to the final episode in which there shall be no hope but capitulation, search for the true fair price of the benchmark. As always, discounting mechanism will work its way to the bottom of this cyclical bear and the process will not be pretty at all.div class=”blogger-post-footer”img width=’1′ height=’1′ src=’http://res1.blogblog.com/tracker/2192317321691025209-8283029147111334415?l=xtrends.blogspot.com’//div

a href=”http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Toxic-asset-purchase-program-apf-14712027.html”Here you go/a…Basically government will loan toxic buyers. Buyers will bid up the values of toxic junks so that additional loans can be created on pumped up assets. To encourage these dummies to buy toxic, FDIC will share the risk and government will partner with private sector in buying process. br /br /Now which came first: Chickens hatch from eggs, but eggs are laid by chickens, making it difficult to say which originally gave rise to the other.br /br /Why there is absolutely no effort to strengthen the fundamentals of economy, but instead, decent people are forced to pay off a bunch of degenerate and low-life’s credit cards, mortgages, auto loans and all other debt. br /br /br /The following chart tells you the whole story about the future of USSA.br /br /br /a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ZdctlOEsqMQ/ScdHa8PmKUI/AAAAAAAABjw/7v6qk5hnwr8/s1600-h/DC_Capital_01+Mar.+23+04.08.gif”img style=”cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 237px;” src=”http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ZdctlOEsqMQ/ScdHa8PmKUI/AAAAAAAABjw/7v6qk5hnwr8/s400/DC_Capital_01+Mar.+23+04.08.gif” border=”0″ alt=”"id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5316296413307873602″ //adiv class=”blogger-post-footer”img width=’1′ height=’1′ src=’http://res1.blogblog.com/tracker/2192317321691025209-6904093115975459722?l=xtrends.blogspot.com’//div

Some might have noticed…I’d posted this vid in comments a few days ago. Considering the current sentiment, I can not think of any better vid to post with the following chartsbr / br /”now stand aside worthy adversary.” br /”tis but a scratch” br /”a scratch? ur arms off!” br /”no it isnt” br /”well whats that then?” br /”ive done worse” br /”u lie” br /”comeone you pansy!”br /br /object width=”425″ height=”344″param name=”movie” value=”http://www.youtube.com/v/zKhEw7nD9C4hl=enfs=1″/paramparam name=”allowFullScreen” value=”true”/paramparam name=”allowscriptaccess” value=”always”/paramembed src=”http://www.youtube.com/v/zKhEw7nD9C4hl=enfs=1″ type=”application/x-shockwave-flash” allowscriptaccess=”always” allowfullscreen=”true” width=”425″ height=”344″/embed/objectbr /br /a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ZdctlOEsqMQ/ScRfm7n_E3I/AAAAAAAABjo/dtdYa8nioRI/s1600-h/DC_Capital_06+Mar.+20+23.28.gif”img style=”cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 239px;” src=”http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ZdctlOEsqMQ/ScRfm7n_E3I/AAAAAAAABjo/dtdYa8nioRI/s400/DC_Capital_06+Mar.+20+23.28.gif” border=”0″ alt=”"id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5315478582649099122″ //abr /a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ZdctlOEsqMQ/ScRfmsY1vLI/AAAAAAAABjg/EQLdLKCVjzs/s1600-h/DC_Capital_05+Mar.+20+23.26.gif”img style=”cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 238px;” src=”http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ZdctlOEsqMQ/ScRfmsY1vLI/AAAAAAAABjg/EQLdLKCVjzs/s400/DC_Capital_05+Mar.+20+23.26.gif” border=”0″ alt=”"id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5315478578559040690″ //abr /a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ZdctlOEsqMQ/ScRfjdT7wKI/AAAAAAAABjY/M1Ka6squnpw/s1600-h/DC_Capital_01+Mar.+20+23.21.gif”img style=”cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 238px;” src=”http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ZdctlOEsqMQ/ScRfjdT7wKI/AAAAAAAABjY/M1Ka6squnpw/s400/DC_Capital_01+Mar.+20+23.21.gif” border=”0″ alt=”"id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5315478522972324002″ //adiv class=”blogger-post-footer”img width=’1′ height=’1′ src=’http://res1.blogblog.com/tracker/2192317321691025209-4590756472951829134?l=xtrends.blogspot.com’//div

I was going to post this last night but couldn’t get a chance. br /Looks like the start of the bull market has been nailed by the majority. br /br /a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ZdctlOEsqMQ/ScKKTVKaN-I/AAAAAAAABi4/hbfP8-VH-ds/s1600-h/bus_very_crowded.jpg”img style=”cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 350px; height: 240px;” src=”http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ZdctlOEsqMQ/ScKKTVKaN-I/AAAAAAAABi4/hbfP8-VH-ds/s400/bus_very_crowded.jpg” border=”0″ alt=”"id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5314962574953560034″ //abr /a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ZdctlOEsqMQ/ScKKUajFqyI/AAAAAAAABjA/UM4K7hRFfWk/s1600-h/DC_Capital_02+Mar.+19+13.58.gif”img style=”cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 332px;” src=”http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ZdctlOEsqMQ/ScKKUajFqyI/AAAAAAAABjA/UM4K7hRFfWk/s400/DC_Capital_02+Mar.+19+13.58.gif” border=”0″ alt=”"id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5314962593579117346″ //abr /a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ZdctlOEsqMQ/ScKKUwZeYzI/AAAAAAAABjQ/xHjfmRhBsFM/s1600-h/DC_Capital_05+Mar.+19+13.59.gif”img style=”cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 391px;” src=”http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ZdctlOEsqMQ/ScKKUwZeYzI/AAAAAAAABjQ/xHjfmRhBsFM/s400/DC_Capital_05+Mar.+19+13.59.gif” border=”0″ alt=”"id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5314962599444374322″ //abr /a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ZdctlOEsqMQ/ScKKUmgkYKI/AAAAAAAABjI/_HP6_A-sANM/s1600-h/DC_Capital_03+Mar.+19+13.58.gif”img style=”cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 235px;” src=”http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ZdctlOEsqMQ/ScKKUmgkYKI/AAAAAAAABjI/_HP6_A-sANM/s400/DC_Capital_03+Mar.+19+13.58.gif” border=”0″ alt=”"id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5314962596789772450″ //adiv class=”blogger-post-footer”img width=’1′ height=’1′ src=’http://res1.blogblog.com/tracker/2192317321691025209-6564477679907989746?l=xtrends.blogspot.com’//div

When ES crossed 730 last week, a href=”http://slopeofhope.com/2009/03/12/going_long_the_es.htm”he went long and gave a target of 800/a which was achieved today. When 800 was tested this afternoon, first thing I remembered was his call. Congrats for the great call and trading TK.br /br /I am still short, added more shorts to my existing SP positions at the close, average is now around 755-760. I believe next swing low will come below 600 which should terminate the bear market.div class=”blogger-post-footer”img width=’1′ height=’1′ src=’http://res1.blogblog.com/tracker/2192317321691025209-5265387719771020852?l=xtrends.blogspot.com’//div

Everybody and their grannies know that Benny will officially claim recession will be over in 2009 so we can all make money. Market has memories…div class=”blogger-post-footer”img width=’1′ height=’1′ src=’http://res1.blogblog.com/tracker/2192317321691025209-8884137676117192810?l=xtrends.blogspot.com’//div