Archive for March, 2009

The more they pump…

The worse it will get… br /br /a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ZdctlOEsqMQ/Sb7CkMO5W4I/AAAAAAAABiw/JuGI9Tt86hA/s1600-h/DC_Capital_01+Mar.+16+17.17.gif”img style=”cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 210px;” src=”http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ZdctlOEsqMQ/Sb7CkMO5W4I/AAAAAAAABiw/JuGI9Tt86hA/s400/DC_Capital_01+Mar.+16+17.17.gif” border=”0″ alt=”"id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5313898537358547842″ //adiv class=”blogger-post-footer”img width=’1′ height=’1′ src=’http://res1.blogblog.com/tracker/2192317321691025209-302254698347221817?l=xtrends.blogspot.com’//div

No bear market ever ended under such conditions

Quad-OPEX week is ahead, extreme volatility is in the cards. br /I am bearish and short SP from 735 average, plus some banks and commercial real estate on top of my previous Nasdaq shorts. br /br /a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ZdctlOEsqMQ/Sbxbn3LDufI/AAAAAAAABh4/DtNrpiMyuUw/s1600-h/DC_Capital_11+Mar.+14+21.35.gif”img style=”cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 235px;” src=”http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ZdctlOEsqMQ/Sbxbn3LDufI/AAAAAAAABh4/DtNrpiMyuUw/s400/DC_Capital_11+Mar.+14+21.35.gif” border=”0″ alt=”"id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5313222400773700082″ //abr /a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ZdctlOEsqMQ/SbxaAlVsSyI/AAAAAAAABhw/RH-6Jw0A5m4/s1600-h/DC_Capital_10+Mar.+14+21.14.gif”img style=”cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 238px;” src=”http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ZdctlOEsqMQ/SbxaAlVsSyI/AAAAAAAABhw/RH-6Jw0A5m4/s400/DC_Capital_10+Mar.+14+21.14.gif” border=”0″ alt=”"id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5313220626459937570″ //abr /a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ZdctlOEsqMQ/SbxaAoxtU9I/AAAAAAAABho/BwT83pb9zXo/s1600-h/DC_Capital_09+Mar.+14+21.09.gif”img style=”cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 389px;” src=”http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ZdctlOEsqMQ/SbxaAoxtU9I/AAAAAAAABho/BwT83pb9zXo/s400/DC_Capital_09+Mar.+14+21.09.gif” border=”0″ alt=”"id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5313220627382752210″ //abr /a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ZdctlOEsqMQ/SbxZ_-k-a0I/AAAAAAAABhg/9YB9w5hlTbc/s1600-h/DC_Capital_08+Mar.+14+21.08.gif”img style=”cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 257px;” src=”http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ZdctlOEsqMQ/SbxZ_-k-a0I/AAAAAAAABhg/9YB9w5hlTbc/s400/DC_Capital_08+Mar.+14+21.08.gif” border=”0″ alt=”"id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5313220616055057218″ //adiv class=”blogger-post-footer”img width=’1′ height=’1′ src=’http://res1.blogblog.com/tracker/2192317321691025209-3576621862064759244?l=xtrends.blogspot.com’//div

Within the big context

Market precisely topped out in the range of 720-750.br /br /I started a href=”http://xtrends.blogspot.com/2009/03/started-shorting-es-sp-around-720.html”shorting SP at 720 upto 750 as I indicated two days ago./abr /br /I expect the next swing low below SPX 600, although we may not get there by next Friday.div class=”blogger-post-footer”img width=’1′ height=’1′ src=’http://res1.blogblog.com/tracker/2192317321691025209-6076653808005690891?l=xtrends.blogspot.com’//div

Staying heavily short for the final episode

ES / SP from 733 and higherbr /br /Banks, brokers, real estatebr /br /Rally extended to the upper limit of my range I initially gave (720-750)br /br /I expect the next swing low to be below 600 in a week or two.div class=”blogger-post-footer”img width=’1′ height=’1′ src=’http://res1.blogblog.com/tracker/2192317321691025209-7860240668180737308?l=xtrends.blogspot.com’//div

I have heavily shorted SP around 733

and added REIT shorts via long SRS and individual components. br /Also reclaimed bank shorts that I covered around 670. br /I am short big time, lets rock now !div class=”blogger-post-footer”img width=’1′ height=’1′ src=’http://res1.blogblog.com/tracker/2192317321691025209-6397863884831357677?l=xtrends.blogspot.com’//div

Possible delta-hedging meltdown in quadruple OPEX week

Conditions are now ripe for a massive sell off… br /br /Next week is a quadruple option expiration week that will likely be extremely volatile. br /br /The market appears to be ready not only to fall on its weight but this sell off may trigger a domino effect in coming Quad-Expiration week. If the market cuts trough key support levels next week, this will force delta hedgers to sell more as the market falls, in turn, strengthens the existing selling climax.br /br /br /a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ZdctlOEsqMQ/SbiE-3dDiDI/AAAAAAAABhY/yALvKowQdAw/s1600-h/DC_Capital_03+Mar.+11+23.42.gif”img style=”cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 239px;” src=”http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ZdctlOEsqMQ/SbiE-3dDiDI/AAAAAAAABhY/yALvKowQdAw/s400/DC_Capital_03+Mar.+11+23.42.gif” border=”0″ alt=”"id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5312141976056072242″ //abr /br /Yesterday ISEE and Equity P/C signaled excessive bullishness among retail tradersbr /br /a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ZdctlOEsqMQ/SbiE-klKKKI/AAAAAAAABhQ/jyzmPLO-56o/s1600-h/DC_Capital_03+Mar.+10+22.42.gif”img style=”cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 269px;” src=”http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ZdctlOEsqMQ/SbiE-klKKKI/AAAAAAAABhQ/jyzmPLO-56o/s400/DC_Capital_03+Mar.+10+22.42.gif” border=”0″ alt=”"id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5312141970989787298″ //abr /a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ZdctlOEsqMQ/SbiE-kodoiI/AAAAAAAABhI/cMVydoJJffg/s1600-h/DC_Capital_02+Mar.+10+22.39.gif”img style=”cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 332px;” src=”http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ZdctlOEsqMQ/SbiE-kodoiI/AAAAAAAABhI/cMVydoJJffg/s400/DC_Capital_02+Mar.+10+22.39.gif” border=”0″ alt=”"id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5312141971003646498″ //adiv class=”blogger-post-footer”img width=’1′ height=’1′ src=’http://res1.blogblog.com/tracker/2192317321691025209-400351450682561653?l=xtrends.blogspot.com’//div

Adding AMZN short over 69, GOOG over 319

helping Sol in his missiondiv class=”blogger-post-footer”img width=’1′ height=’1′ src=’http://res1.blogblog.com/tracker/2192317321691025209-1806265284743570956?l=xtrends.blogspot.com’//div

Shorted AZO over 160

This stock gave a lot of pain to bears in the last few weeks. Here comes my rescue.br /br /I believe the move has been completed this morning as SP made its final attempt before the intense part of the selling climax. The coming plunge will take everything down including stocks like AZO. I expect AZO to test 125 in a couple of weeks.div class=”blogger-post-footer”img width=’1′ height=’1′ src=’http://res1.blogblog.com/tracker/2192317321691025209-5688476431060487107?l=xtrends.blogspot.com’//div

The markets will print an important top today or tomorrow

I continue shorting SP and ES above 720. I do not think the markets will be able to make it to 750 therefore I will be heavily shorting today. br /I believe this will be the last swing top of the final episode, which should be terminated around SPX 550-600div class=”blogger-post-footer”img width=’1′ height=’1′ src=’http://res1.blogblog.com/tracker/2192317321691025209-4488541155384419946?l=xtrends.blogspot.com’//div

Started shorting ES / SP around 720

upto 750div class=”blogger-post-footer”img width=’1′ height=’1′ src=’http://res1.blogblog.com/tracker/2192317321691025209-8940485515149564509?l=xtrends.blogspot.com’//div