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PPT is death but there is CPT now. After the crash of 2008, Crash Prevention Team was established. Unlike PPT, CPT consists of mostly ex-con low-intelligence highly-brave redneck-like people. br /But when their stupidity gets arrogantly loud and when you see positive VIX in the face of 2% rally on well orchestrated pump and when it is still a bear market, you must think what the heck? br /br /Another upward push to break SPX 850 / DJI 8000 layer. Unfortunately this has been going on for months and SPX is still near the October 2008 crash low, moving up and down around 850 by 15 points… unable to overcome the crash prints. br /br /In terms of short term, one had to cover shorts at ES 853-854 level early in the morning because of the following chart which I had a href=”http://xtrends.blogspot.com/2009/04/topping-process.html”posted yesterday/a as well. As you remember I said SPY needed to open below 84.7 for a full force sell-off from the get go. But instead SPY gaped above the middle green trend line seen on the following chart. This implied further upside for the day, I stress the words “for the day”br /br /a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ZdctlOEsqMQ/SfKlwKBerlI/AAAAAAAABlw/51uvGX76tHY/s1600-h/DC_Capital_11+Apr.+25+01.31.gif”img style=”cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 144px;” src=”http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ZdctlOEsqMQ/SfKlwKBerlI/AAAAAAAABlw/51uvGX76tHY/s400/DC_Capital_11+Apr.+25+01.31.gif” border=”0″ alt=”"id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5328503555875581522″ //abr /br /Why I talk about this short term situation? Because I want all xTrenders to understand one thing:br /br / I use xTrends to trade intermediate term moves, that is my time frame and I explained several times before that I expect 850 area to be the intermediate term top. I am hopping it is all clear that this doesn’t contain any day trading information. br /br /Furthermore you should all know by now that I don’t buy all the dips and sell all the peaks on intraday charts except for micromanaging purposes. So when I micromanage like today, you will likely not know whether I am covering or selling BUT WHEN I SEE THE INTERMEDIATE TERM PICTURE CHANGING, I WILL LET YOU KNOW. I tried to post my micromanages a while ago but it turned out too time consuming in the middle of the trade executions, costly indeed.br /br /Another point I want to make is about the trend I am trading. For me, bear market has the definition of trend. When it is a bear market, I happen to find it safe to short the tops instead of buying dips although I sometimes go long when I see low risk/reward. It has been over 1200 intermediate term SP points I accumulated since SPX 1550+ and 800+ points since last August. This last 800 points was all published on the blog realtime publicly. The last time I closed all a href=”http://xtrends.blogspot.com/2009/03/covered-sp-and-es-below-670.html”my shorts was at SPX=670/a which happened to be an intermediate term bottom. All these can be confirmed from the archives date by date.br /br /xTrends is not a bear cave or bull barn. It is a place to trade trends. And it is definitely not a place for some pinhead low lifes to get egoistic satisfaction at the expense of others’ honesty. br /br /This is just another intermediate term trade which I have extremely high confidence. Market will have the final word as usual and I will respect it as always. Until then I will continue executing my strategy to full extend.div class=”blogger-post-footer”img width=’1′ height=’1′ src=’http://res1.blogblog.com/tracker/2192317321691025209-3567130659070411376?l=xtrends.blogspot.com’//div

As part of the topping process, the market continues to oscillate between 830-850 before diving towards sub-800… br /br /SPY needs to open below 84.7 for a nice intraday sell off tomorrow. ES is currently down 4, I guess we need 2 or 3 more (842 or 841 should correspond to SPY 84.7) to trigger a sell off from the get go. br /br /br /a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ZdctlOEsqMQ/SfEg3aQW7tI/AAAAAAAABlY/w0bGXztgXjo/s1600-h/DC_Capital_01+Apr.+23+22.00.gif”img style=”cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 143px;” src=”http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ZdctlOEsqMQ/SfEg3aQW7tI/AAAAAAAABlY/w0bGXztgXjo/s400/DC_Capital_01+Apr.+23+22.00.gif” border=”0″ alt=”"id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5328075970468835026″ //abr /br /Meanwhile, most of the long term charts are perfectly in sync. Like OEX below, they all imply minimum 40% drop in the next 3-9 months. So I stay massively short till SPX is cut in half. br /a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ZdctlOEsqMQ/SfEg3DlZn1I/AAAAAAAABlQ/BDKC6V8q-Os/s1600-h/DC_Capital_01+Apr.+22+01.22.gif”img style=”cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 250px;” src=”http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ZdctlOEsqMQ/SfEg3DlZn1I/AAAAAAAABlQ/BDKC6V8q-Os/s400/DC_Capital_01+Apr.+22+01.22.gif” border=”0″ alt=”"id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5328075964383076178″ //abr /a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ZdctlOEsqMQ/SfEg3aIEmNI/AAAAAAAABlg/qc_8Gz7NqmU/s1600-h/DC_Capital_03+Apr.+23+22.10.gif”img style=”cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 293px;” src=”http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ZdctlOEsqMQ/SfEg3aIEmNI/AAAAAAAABlg/qc_8Gz7NqmU/s400/DC_Capital_03+Apr.+23+22.10.gif” border=”0″ alt=”"id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5328075970434078930″ //adiv class=”blogger-post-footer”img width=’1′ height=’1′ src=’http://res1.blogblog.com/tracker/2192317321691025209-4371945124622826870?l=xtrends.blogspot.com’//div

I think we will break out of this trading range soon, in other words we break below 800 in a week. This will open door to test 720 which is an important juncture defined by multiple xTrends.br /br /a href=”http://xtrends.blogspot.com/2009/04/list-of-stocks-atilla-recommended-to.html”That list/a Sol gave you earlier are the best shorts today’s pop created. The list is actually huge, I will continue to mention individual opportunities going forward. br /br /Also I think Sol hesitated to mention that I am short AAPL from 125 and AMZN from 82 areas into their earnings.div class=”blogger-post-footer”img width=’1′ height=’1′ src=’http://res1.blogblog.com/tracker/2192317321691025209-431335096969562213?l=xtrends.blogspot.com’//div

I am receiving increasing number of emails threatening myself and my family just because I talk bearish about the intermediate and long term future of the market. br /br /Despite SP overshoot almost 20 points above my trading range on option expiration day, last Friday, I stand still with modified positions for the next intermediate term plunge to sub-600 and I will stay the course as long as my charts say so.br /br /I am going to make a few things very clear at this point.br /br /First of all, some pinhead rednecks need to understand the fact that I am not the one responsible for all this mess… If SP500 dropped to 666 from 1576 in less than two years, it is the policies, system and macro-economics not a trader or a group of traders. I am a trader, there are 100s of other known people called it, traded it, made fortunes on it. br /br /Secondly, it is not my responsibility to spoon-feed some daytraders constantly. Even the pay-sites that you pay tons of money to get daytrade signals do not take a slightest responsibility on any kind of losses. br /br /This a social, financial blog to share ideas and information. While the situation is like that Sol and I have still been doing our best to share our view on short term situations frequently. Except two intermediate term trades that Sol didn’t micromanaged at all (FAZ and NQ), this a href=”http://xpositions.blogspot.com/”xPositions /atable clearly shows how we traded short term moves for the last year or so.br /br /I am an intermediate term trader, those who followed me for years know the fact that I have been bearish since the day one of this top and I covered my long term shorts at a href=”http://xtrends.blogspot.com/2009/03/covered-sp-and-es-below-670.html”670 publicly real-time at the bottom/a on March 6, 2009 and consider and trade the current range as the next intermediate term top. I stand still with modified core positions, with average 865, I will keep pounding on the table that this bear will end only after we make new lows on all major indices.br /br /Despite the fact that I have been calling the end of bear market below 600 due to the long term technicals, this market has no bottom until the very basic fundamentals of the global economics are stabilized in terms of demand-supply balance that can be translated to credits, consumer spending, production, unemployment, deflation, liquidity and all other factors…this may take decades. But regardless I will be closing my positions below or near the 600 because I always traded charts not economics.div class=”blogger-post-footer”img width=’1′ height=’1′ src=’http://res1.blogblog.com/tracker/2192317321691025209-2776604582355685055?l=xtrends.blogspot.com’//div

It came to my attention that a few readers who has been bullish for the last few days getting nasty to the others even tho the market didn’t budge in the direction of their delusion. br /br /I said this countless times before, and the most of my readers know that I am an intermediate term trader.br /br /After I covered at 780, I said that I am expecting a range bound market till earnings are out. And this is exactly what has been happening so far. br /br /I shorted at 840, covered at 810, went long at 803, and now I am short at 850 … trading exactly what I said for weeks. br /I expect the start of the sub-600 scenario after we break below this range which I believe will happen after the earnings. br /br /Now, I want xTrends to be a place where everyone can share ideas and trades respectfully. br /br /This is my final warning to those who intentionally distract the community with false and wrong information constantly. Some of these people were repeatedly banned after violating terms of use in the past. They still come back. br /br /If this continues like this, there will be further action to moderate the board to protect the decency and freedom.div class=”blogger-post-footer”img width=’1′ height=’1′ src=’http://res1.blogblog.com/tracker/2192317321691025209-231821084118800603?l=xtrends.blogspot.com’//div

Market will not be ready to visit the lower boundary of the range (800 on SPX) until most of the type-1 suckers are lured into the bull buss. br /br /Remember before the GS earnings market sharply moved towards 850 into the close as if it was about to shoot towards 900 next day. But the next day, market cratered as GS got severely decimated about 20 dollars per share in a few hours.br /br /We have seen the similar market action before JPM earnings. Only difference is JPM is slightly higher in pre-market action while futures are down.br /br /Market will do the most obvious in the most unobvious way. So my advice, trade what you see, not what you feel or believe.div class=”blogger-post-footer”img width=’1′ height=’1′ src=’http://res1.blogblog.com/tracker/2192317321691025209-8371891326070821813?l=xtrends.blogspot.com’//div

Bank stress test results are coming at the end of the month and whales are selling while selling is good…considering the sector is already bloated on fake numbers.br /br / Meanwhile, after the shocking numbers from invincible WMT, today INTC and LLTC gave another meaning to what xTrends were telling you …. test of sub-600.br /br /Like I said months ago, this will no longer be a credit problem after the epidemic spreads through the system. From small businesses to large international companies like INTC, IBM etc , they are all on the same bus down to El Paso. br /br /Regarding SP trading, a href=”http://xtrends.blogspot.com/2009/04/congestion-between-800-850-continues.html”like I said earlier today/a, we continue to congest between 800-850 until the bulk of the earnings are out. We tested the upper boundary with brief penetration towards 860 which cleaned out the stops. This occurred during the fake bank earnings, and it also helped to clean more shorts from the system. Now we shall test the lower boundary of the range on tech earnings which are overly estimated. br /br /Staying short ES / SP from 850 area, roundly roundly it goes…div class=”blogger-post-footer”img width=’1′ height=’1′ src=’http://res1.blogblog.com/tracker/2192317321691025209-4899306750793609025?l=xtrends.blogspot.com’//div

Like I said, the market will trade within this range during the earning season with brief intraday penetrations (upto 860 and down to 790) of upper and lower boundaries to trap and lock and run the stops. br /br /It is no surprise that we have visited the upper boundary during the fake bank earnings. I strongly believe we will visit the lower boundary during the coming tech earnings which are overly estimated.div class=”blogger-post-footer”img width=’1′ height=’1′ src=’http://res1.blogblog.com/tracker/2192317321691025209-1243290937352335422?l=xtrends.blogspot.com’//div

That is the end of this bear market, the final leg of this bear market, which we are 100s of SPX points away. American public is unfortunately once again lured into the belief that things have turned for the better and a new bull market has began. The same game, different players. From Bernanke to Greenspan to Bush to Paulson… These people cost some of the average Americans more than their total life savings. br /br /Acceptance did not come until SPX dropped below 1000 where we saw some geniuses like a href=”http://xtrends.blogspot.com/2008/10/collapse-of-market-fundamentalism.html”Buffet and Hussman/a calling for the end of the bear market and attractive valuations. For a moment It confused me but like all other human beings, my thought process is adaptive. Just like how the market is an adaptive dynamic entity. In March SPX plunged to 670 where I a href=”http://xtrends.blogspot.com/2009/03/covered-sp-and-es-below-670.html”covered all my short positions/a but I knew it was not over. br /br /Up until now, once again, the same old tricks has been played by a modified team masterfully. But this time, they used not only what they have in treasury, but everything they can get from public. This is where the death of market fundamentalism becomes obvious because we shall observe the fact that current valuations and numbers has been adaptively changed in time. That is why the coming sell off will be astonishing, nothing to hang on, no hope to hold on.br /br /At this point anything that implies otherwise will not make any sense to me because almost everything I looked at confirms what I said. That is, trend studies… Trends are the only tool that show you the faith with high accuracy. Because these lines create your sentiment, market internals, shape your oscillators… Because trends are created by the economic realities.br /br /I watch almost all sectors and indices along with 100s of major components. When we have this many stocks and indices back-testing xTrends, the market always formed a massive top that lasted months to say the least. Even Shanghai Stock Exchange showing a 50% sell off from here on by 2010. br /br /The current trading range on SPX (800-850) will be the last deception on your charts. That is, the market will likely move within this range in a way that it will give the impression of invincible strength. Several upside and downside penetrations will occur during the process to trap and lock. This will eventually unclog the system for the next downtrend. br /br /The last thing, which is not related with the topic but some readers. At the beginning of April, I recognized that there will be a lengthily topping process. Therefore a href=”http://xtrends.blogspot.com/2009/04/covered-es-and-sp-780.html”I covered my premature short positions at 780/a then a href=”http://xtrends.blogspot.com/2009/04/fully-short-sp-and-es-from-840.html”shorted at 840/a to a href=”http://xtrends.blogspot.com/2009/04/covered-remaining-50-es-sp-811.html”cover around 810/a. I went a href=”http://xtrends.blogspot.com/2009/04/long-es-803.html”long around 800/a. Now I am short right below 850. All of these moves were timely and profitable unlike what some trolls try to advertise in media. br /I will not talk about why these people do it because the psychological part of the market is complicated but there is always a causal connection in human behavior. Only reason I can think of is the punishment of the market. Position and risk management is where we say devil is in details. I don’t know how many people wants to see xTrends as a trading service rather than a financial blog?div class=”blogger-post-footer”img width=’1′ height=’1′ src=’http://res1.blogblog.com/tracker/2192317321691025209-6132766163754417121?l=xtrends.blogspot.com’//div

SP tested the upper boundary of my trading range after visiting 800 two days ago.br /br /No matter what the news and rant could be, the market is doing what it wants to do. br /br /I expect the market to gap down on Monday. Some indices will fill the gap but some will not. Those indices with climactic action into the close will likely not fill their gaps on Monday. br /br /Like I said in my earlier post, Wells Fargo, like many other banks today I believe topped out. br /br /I am trading according to this SP range.br /br /I am fully short SP /ES from 845 just like I was fully long at 803 two days ago.div class=”blogger-post-footer”img width=’1′ height=’1′ src=’http://res1.blogblog.com/tracker/2192317321691025209-4735689261852308727?l=xtrends.blogspot.com’//div