Archive for May, 2009

“There will be a lot of financial shocks”

The title of this post is from a href=”http://www.reuters.com/articlePrint?articleId=USTRE54511C20090506″Roubini’s seminar today/a…Like Roubini says, markets are getting way ahead of themselves. There may be a lot of reasons to this but the one I have constantly been observing is the recent forged economic reports released at key market levels triggering short squeezes on quant funds.br /br /I was in a meeting with Peter Schiff at NYU last Thursday. Unlike what you may guess, we talked more about current economic policies and administrative mistakes that will lead to the destruction of this country’s assets, its currency, socioeconomic structure and eventually the whole system while creating next financial bubbles in emerging markets, especially in Asia. br /br /It is sad to see that too many smart people who foresaw this mess long ago now predict similar future for the country if the current policies are maintained… because when the ship sinks deep enough, I am afraid the policy makers themselves will be the first to leave the ship without saying goodbye. I will keep this one short because it is the close of Friday May 8 that will be very telling.br /br /Regarding the market action, I expect ESM9 to close below 885 this week to maintain a bearish intermediate term meaning for 850-870 range. It is currently trading about 30 points higher than this area. We will see what will happen by the end of the week.div class=”blogger-post-footer”img width=’1′ height=’1′ src=’http://res1.blogblog.com/tracker/2192317321691025209-8018909221707628864?l=xtrends.blogspot.com’//div

SP 500 nears break-even for 2009…

I posted this in comments below but for those who missed my posts , I am putting it here.br /br /—————————br /br /Sheeplie is now close to get break even for the year as SP500 is now near where it was in Jan 2009 but interestingly in the last two days, all you heard was new bull market and how Atilla was wrong about SPX 850 being top… If you need a sentiment gauge right here, think about this: While Atilla was shorting their ass from 1500 to 670, it wasn’t looking as exciting as it is now, however Sheeplie is now on the new bull bus dreaming he can get even… wouln’t you say so Sheeplie?br /br /By the way, I do not mean to insult bulls or bullish investors / traders or a group of traders with specific market outlook by “Sheeplie”. Sheeplie are those that suffer from myopic syndromes in finance. Those that got raped numerous times brutally in the stock market and now think it is all different game and rules. Sheeplie is the one that can not recognize his place in the game despite countless lessons given. br /br /br /Atilla may be down for the trade at this moment but it is going to take Sheeplie more than 35 handles to get even with Atilla if this is what Sheeplie desires…That is, about 900 SP points from 670 to 1570… br /br /Atilla wants to remind Sheeplie one thing: In the last two years Atilla made many intermediate term trades publicly that he initially took 50 handle drawdown to book 100-300 handles profit from each later. Then the question Sheeplie needs an answer for: Is this going to be different? br /br /Atilla says: Unlikely but if it is, Atilla assures Sheeplie that he will let Sheeplie know that for the first time in this bear market, Atilla lost it. br /br /Other thing Atilla want’s to remind Sheeplie about is the fact that Atilla a href=”http://xtrends.blogspot.com/2009/03/covered-sp-and-es-below-670.html”covered his short positions at 670/a. That is the bottom tick of this bear market so far.br /br /Although Atilla stayed bearish all along, he traded according to what he saw as always. When Sheeplie gets emotional and claims otherwise, xTrenders know the fact that Atilla a href=”http://xtrends.blogspot.com/2009/04/covered-es-and-sp-780.html”closed his early shorts from 750 at 780./a Then a href=”http://xtrends.blogspot.com/2009/04/fully-short-sp-and-es-from-840.html”shorted at 840/a to a href=”http://xtrends.blogspot.com/2009/04/covered-remaining-50-es-sp-811.html”cover at 811/a. He then a href=”http://xtrends.blogspot.com/2009/04/long-es-803.html”went long at 800/a, and a href=”http://xtrends.blogspot.com/2009/04/closed-es-8235.html”sold at 825/a. Atilla has been shorting since 850 and trying to micromanage. br /br /People should always remember that no one can be right 100% of the time. No matter how good or bad, Market hits everyone without exception. It is inevitable and unpreventable. What is important is, a mistake must be recognized before it is too late. Within the time frames and price levels Atilla trades, he thinks market proved nothing since SPX 850. For the change in the picture to happen, key indices must take out some key levels within certain time frames. This is yet to happen.div class=”blogger-post-footer”img width=’1′ height=’1′ src=’http://res1.blogblog.com/tracker/2192317321691025209-3137846766699265244?l=xtrends.blogspot.com’//div

Under the surface…

Leadership sectors already started pulling back as spotted by a href=”http://xtrends.blogspot.com/2009/04/modified-p-index.html”"Modified P”/a index.br /br /I have been short most of these leading sectors that constitutes “P”. Except index short positions, the market already started moving in the direction this bear has been positioned for. br /br /a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ZdctlOEsqMQ/SfxihO4gnvI/AAAAAAAABno/vwuBGSJgrpg/s1600-h/DC_Capital_01+May.+02+10.04.gif”img style=”cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 264px;” src=”http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ZdctlOEsqMQ/SfxihO4gnvI/AAAAAAAABno/vwuBGSJgrpg/s400/DC_Capital_01+May.+02+10.04.gif” border=”0″ alt=”"id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5331244381970145010″ //abr /br /a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ZdctlOEsqMQ/Sfxfrq9KugI/AAAAAAAABnY/f9H5yLEoQQY/s1600-h/DC_Capital_02+May.+02+10.07.gif”img style=”cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 263px;” src=”http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ZdctlOEsqMQ/Sfxfrq9KugI/AAAAAAAABnY/f9H5yLEoQQY/s400/DC_Capital_02+May.+02+10.07.gif” border=”0″ alt=”"id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5331241262769682946″ //abr /br /a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ZdctlOEsqMQ/Sfxfr3SFfQI/AAAAAAAABng/fuRgXwSOJCU/s1600-h/DC_Capital_03+May.+02+10.09.gif”img style=”cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 298px; height: 400px;” src=”http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ZdctlOEsqMQ/Sfxfr3SFfQI/AAAAAAAABng/fuRgXwSOJCU/s400/DC_Capital_03+May.+02+10.09.gif” border=”0″ alt=”"id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5331241266078645506″ //adiv class=”blogger-post-footer”img width=’1′ height=’1′ src=’http://res1.blogblog.com/tracker/2192317321691025209-8662940292195590572?l=xtrends.blogspot.com’//div