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We got the shooting star which was foretold by green TL intraday.br /br /In this episode, you should watch the next level defined by the black xT which passes through approximately 84.55 – 84.45 area. br /br /IF SPY opens below this area, it should trigger a serious sell off from the get go. br /br /br /a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ZdctlOEsqMQ/SfaHVgs8a1I/AAAAAAAABmo/wmFhTG5JRFc/s1600-h/DC_Capital.GIF”img style=”cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 261px;” src=”http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ZdctlOEsqMQ/SfaHVgs8a1I/AAAAAAAABmo/wmFhTG5JRFc/s400/DC_Capital.GIF” border=”0″ alt=”"id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5329596012665006930″ //adiv class=”blogger-post-footer”img width=’1′ height=’1′ src=’http://res1.blogblog.com/tracker/2192317321691025209-1595771809252838863?l=xtrends.blogspot.com’//div

Bulls couldn’t surprise me today…br /br /a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ZdctlOEsqMQ/SfYYzEZPFhI/AAAAAAAABmg/bXYVOpw71B0/s1600-h/untitled.JPG”img style=”cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 194px;” src=”http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ZdctlOEsqMQ/SfYYzEZPFhI/AAAAAAAABmg/bXYVOpw71B0/s400/untitled.JPG” border=”0″ alt=”"id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5329474474671543826″ //adiv class=”blogger-post-footer”img width=’1′ height=’1′ src=’http://res1.blogblog.com/tracker/2192317321691025209-7062022640878076065?l=xtrends.blogspot.com’//div

When the trained crowd gets this greedy, tops take longer but firmer… br /br /Regarding today, it wouldn’t look so pretty when this turn into a a href=”http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:candlestick_bearish_#shooting_star”shooting star/a , would it?br /br /This is the most likely scenario since it opened below the TL, it should close below the TL today. br /br /Surprise me bulls. br /br /a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ZdctlOEsqMQ/SfXVDvQiu9I/AAAAAAAABmY/nOr9GR4_5rI/s1600-h/DC_Capital_01+Apr.+27+11.21.gif”img style=”cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 377px; height: 327px;” src=”http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ZdctlOEsqMQ/SfXVDvQiu9I/AAAAAAAABmY/nOr9GR4_5rI/s400/DC_Capital_01+Apr.+27+11.21.gif” border=”0″ alt=”"id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5329399994265025490″ //adiv class=”blogger-post-footer”img width=’1′ height=’1′ src=’http://res1.blogblog.com/tracker/2192317321691025209-5349394451327400528?l=xtrends.blogspot.com’//div

Two days ago, I wanted to highlight the discipline I have been following and why I do it. I think there is going to be a real life example to explain it better today.br /br /Take a look at the following chart again.br /br /a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ZdctlOEsqMQ/SfWkWIGOzlI/AAAAAAAABmI/GTXtyNe4fRQ/s1600-h/DC_Capital_03+Apr.+26+21.29.gif”img style=”cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 227px;” src=”http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ZdctlOEsqMQ/SfWkWIGOzlI/AAAAAAAABmI/GTXtyNe4fRQ/s400/DC_Capital_03+Apr.+26+21.29.gif” border=”0″ alt=”"id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5329346434100547154″ //abr /br /If the market opens at where futures are now, SPY will gap below that green trend line and trap a bunch of traders who thought we were breaking out on Friday. br /br /Big picture, larger time frames, micromanaging, sticking with the strong possibilities while taking advantage of small moves… These eventually let you capitalize on the large moves. br /br /Some people confuses micromanaging with day trading, some doesn’t understand it at all. Micromanaging is a way to optimize your average price. If your system predicts a range bound market which will soon lead to a directional trending market, you take advantage of this congestion within the range to optimize your entry prices of your portfolio which you built for the next big trend. You do this by closing a portion of your position when the market goes in the opposite direction in small time frames then reopen the same position at better prices. br /br /Why I was trading on the short side around this area? Why Sol shorted a bunch despite he knew they looked like breakouts. Why I said big surprise will soon be on the downside? Because larger time frames always dominate smaller time frames. Longer xTrends always dominate shorter xTrends. When the market pushes through some steal wall like this one under some certain conditions, it gets rejected like a ball bouncing off a stiff surface.br /br /a href=”http://finance.yahoo.com/news/World-Bank-Economic-crisis-apf-15036373.html?sec=topStoriespos=6asset=ccode=”World Bank: Economic crisis turning into calamity/abr /br /I wish best of luck to those who bought Friday’s fakeout.div class=”blogger-post-footer”img width=’1′ height=’1′ src=’http://res1.blogblog.com/tracker/2192317321691025209-6554624382874716561?l=xtrends.blogspot.com’//div

Do you remember a href=”http://xtrends.blogspot.com/2008/08/introducing-p-index.html”this custom index/a I created back in August 2008 which a href=”http://xtrends.blogspot.com/2008/09/are-you-scared-to-short-bear-sectors.html”helped me to capture the crash/a. br /br /The following chart belongs to the new version of that index. This modified P-Index contains an additional sector and all of its coefficients are adjusted accordingly. br /br /a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ZdctlOEsqMQ/SfPjNChEfjI/AAAAAAAABl4/2PjOh42KlOk/s1600-h/DC_Capital_14+Apr.+26+00.08.gif”img style=”cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 262px;” src=”http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ZdctlOEsqMQ/SfPjNChEfjI/AAAAAAAABl4/2PjOh42KlOk/s400/DC_Capital_14+Apr.+26+00.08.gif” border=”0″ alt=”"id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5328852597262810674″ //abr /br /I have been following this new index for the last few weeks and it was another reason I called 850 area intermediate top. It doesn’t matter whether SP overshoots 10 or 20 points above 850, we are forming an important intermediate term top here… br /br / The last two weeks were gift for me, I was able to optimize my positions for the next leg down that will likely end 40% below where SP is today. of course this will be obvious to the masses in coming months once SPX takes out 720.div class=”blogger-post-footer”img width=’1′ height=’1′ src=’http://res1.blogblog.com/tracker/2192317321691025209-8351321315216183335?l=xtrends.blogspot.com’//div

PPT is death but there is CPT now. After the crash of 2008, Crash Prevention Team was established. Unlike PPT, CPT consists of mostly ex-con low-intelligence highly-brave redneck-like people. br /But when their stupidity gets arrogantly loud and when you see positive VIX in the face of 2% rally on well orchestrated pump and when it is still a bear market, you must think what the heck? br /br /Another upward push to break SPX 850 / DJI 8000 layer. Unfortunately this has been going on for months and SPX is still near the October 2008 crash low, moving up and down around 850 by 15 points… unable to overcome the crash prints. br /br /In terms of short term, one had to cover shorts at ES 853-854 level early in the morning because of the following chart which I had a href=”http://xtrends.blogspot.com/2009/04/topping-process.html”posted yesterday/a as well. As you remember I said SPY needed to open below 84.7 for a full force sell-off from the get go. But instead SPY gaped above the middle green trend line seen on the following chart. This implied further upside for the day, I stress the words “for the day”br /br /a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ZdctlOEsqMQ/SfKlwKBerlI/AAAAAAAABlw/51uvGX76tHY/s1600-h/DC_Capital_11+Apr.+25+01.31.gif”img style=”cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 144px;” src=”http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ZdctlOEsqMQ/SfKlwKBerlI/AAAAAAAABlw/51uvGX76tHY/s400/DC_Capital_11+Apr.+25+01.31.gif” border=”0″ alt=”"id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5328503555875581522″ //abr /br /Why I talk about this short term situation? Because I want all xTrenders to understand one thing:br /br / I use xTrends to trade intermediate term moves, that is my time frame and I explained several times before that I expect 850 area to be the intermediate term top. I am hopping it is all clear that this doesn’t contain any day trading information. br /br /Furthermore you should all know by now that I don’t buy all the dips and sell all the peaks on intraday charts except for micromanaging purposes. So when I micromanage like today, you will likely not know whether I am covering or selling BUT WHEN I SEE THE INTERMEDIATE TERM PICTURE CHANGING, I WILL LET YOU KNOW. I tried to post my micromanages a while ago but it turned out too time consuming in the middle of the trade executions, costly indeed.br /br /Another point I want to make is about the trend I am trading. For me, bear market has the definition of trend. When it is a bear market, I happen to find it safe to short the tops instead of buying dips although I sometimes go long when I see low risk/reward. It has been over 1200 intermediate term SP points I accumulated since SPX 1550+ and 800+ points since last August. This last 800 points was all published on the blog realtime publicly. The last time I closed all a href=”http://xtrends.blogspot.com/2009/03/covered-sp-and-es-below-670.html”my shorts was at SPX=670/a which happened to be an intermediate term bottom. All these can be confirmed from the archives date by date.br /br /xTrends is not a bear cave or bull barn. It is a place to trade trends. And it is definitely not a place for some pinhead low lifes to get egoistic satisfaction at the expense of others’ honesty. br /br /This is just another intermediate term trade which I have extremely high confidence. Market will have the final word as usual and I will respect it as always. Until then I will continue executing my strategy to full extend.div class=”blogger-post-footer”img width=’1′ height=’1′ src=’http://res1.blogblog.com/tracker/2192317321691025209-3567130659070411376?l=xtrends.blogspot.com’//div

As part of the topping process, the market continues to oscillate between 830-850 before diving towards sub-800… br /br /SPY needs to open below 84.7 for a nice intraday sell off tomorrow. ES is currently down 4, I guess we need 2 or 3 more (842 or 841 should correspond to SPY 84.7) to trigger a sell off from the get go. br /br /br /a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ZdctlOEsqMQ/SfEg3aQW7tI/AAAAAAAABlY/w0bGXztgXjo/s1600-h/DC_Capital_01+Apr.+23+22.00.gif”img style=”cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 143px;” src=”http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ZdctlOEsqMQ/SfEg3aQW7tI/AAAAAAAABlY/w0bGXztgXjo/s400/DC_Capital_01+Apr.+23+22.00.gif” border=”0″ alt=”"id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5328075970468835026″ //abr /br /Meanwhile, most of the long term charts are perfectly in sync. Like OEX below, they all imply minimum 40% drop in the next 3-9 months. So I stay massively short till SPX is cut in half. br /a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ZdctlOEsqMQ/SfEg3DlZn1I/AAAAAAAABlQ/BDKC6V8q-Os/s1600-h/DC_Capital_01+Apr.+22+01.22.gif”img style=”cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 250px;” src=”http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ZdctlOEsqMQ/SfEg3DlZn1I/AAAAAAAABlQ/BDKC6V8q-Os/s400/DC_Capital_01+Apr.+22+01.22.gif” border=”0″ alt=”"id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5328075964383076178″ //abr /a onblur=”try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}” href=”http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ZdctlOEsqMQ/SfEg3aIEmNI/AAAAAAAABlg/qc_8Gz7NqmU/s1600-h/DC_Capital_03+Apr.+23+22.10.gif”img style=”cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 293px;” src=”http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ZdctlOEsqMQ/SfEg3aIEmNI/AAAAAAAABlg/qc_8Gz7NqmU/s400/DC_Capital_03+Apr.+23+22.10.gif” border=”0″ alt=”"id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5328075970434078930″ //adiv class=”blogger-post-footer”img width=’1′ height=’1′ src=’http://res1.blogblog.com/tracker/2192317321691025209-4371945124622826870?l=xtrends.blogspot.com’//div

I think we will break out of this trading range soon, in other words we break below 800 in a week. This will open door to test 720 which is an important juncture defined by multiple xTrends.br /br /a href=”http://xtrends.blogspot.com/2009/04/list-of-stocks-atilla-recommended-to.html”That list/a Sol gave you earlier are the best shorts today’s pop created. The list is actually huge, I will continue to mention individual opportunities going forward. br /br /Also I think Sol hesitated to mention that I am short AAPL from 125 and AMZN from 82 areas into their earnings.div class=”blogger-post-footer”img width=’1′ height=’1′ src=’http://res1.blogblog.com/tracker/2192317321691025209-431335096969562213?l=xtrends.blogspot.com’//div

I am receiving increasing number of emails threatening myself and my family just because I talk bearish about the intermediate and long term future of the market. br /br /Despite SP overshoot almost 20 points above my trading range on option expiration day, last Friday, I stand still with modified positions for the next intermediate term plunge to sub-600 and I will stay the course as long as my charts say so.br /br /I am going to make a few things very clear at this point.br /br /First of all, some pinhead rednecks need to understand the fact that I am not the one responsible for all this mess… If SP500 dropped to 666 from 1576 in less than two years, it is the policies, system and macro-economics not a trader or a group of traders. I am a trader, there are 100s of other known people called it, traded it, made fortunes on it. br /br /Secondly, it is not my responsibility to spoon-feed some daytraders constantly. Even the pay-sites that you pay tons of money to get daytrade signals do not take a slightest responsibility on any kind of losses. br /br /This a social, financial blog to share ideas and information. While the situation is like that Sol and I have still been doing our best to share our view on short term situations frequently. Except two intermediate term trades that Sol didn’t micromanaged at all (FAZ and NQ), this a href=”http://xpositions.blogspot.com/”xPositions /atable clearly shows how we traded short term moves for the last year or so.br /br /I am an intermediate term trader, those who followed me for years know the fact that I have been bearish since the day one of this top and I covered my long term shorts at a href=”http://xtrends.blogspot.com/2009/03/covered-sp-and-es-below-670.html”670 publicly real-time at the bottom/a on March 6, 2009 and consider and trade the current range as the next intermediate term top. I stand still with modified core positions, with average 865, I will keep pounding on the table that this bear will end only after we make new lows on all major indices.br /br /Despite the fact that I have been calling the end of bear market below 600 due to the long term technicals, this market has no bottom until the very basic fundamentals of the global economics are stabilized in terms of demand-supply balance that can be translated to credits, consumer spending, production, unemployment, deflation, liquidity and all other factors…this may take decades. But regardless I will be closing my positions below or near the 600 because I always traded charts not economics.div class=”blogger-post-footer”img width=’1′ height=’1′ src=’http://res1.blogblog.com/tracker/2192317321691025209-2776604582355685055?l=xtrends.blogspot.com’//div

It came to my attention that a few readers who has been bullish for the last few days getting nasty to the others even tho the market didn’t budge in the direction of their delusion. br /br /I said this countless times before, and the most of my readers know that I am an intermediate term trader.br /br /After I covered at 780, I said that I am expecting a range bound market till earnings are out. And this is exactly what has been happening so far. br /br /I shorted at 840, covered at 810, went long at 803, and now I am short at 850 … trading exactly what I said for weeks. br /I expect the start of the sub-600 scenario after we break below this range which I believe will happen after the earnings. br /br /Now, I want xTrends to be a place where everyone can share ideas and trades respectfully. br /br /This is my final warning to those who intentionally distract the community with false and wrong information constantly. Some of these people were repeatedly banned after violating terms of use in the past. They still come back. br /br /If this continues like this, there will be further action to moderate the board to protect the decency and freedom.div class=”blogger-post-footer”img width=’1′ height=’1′ src=’http://res1.blogblog.com/tracker/2192317321691025209-231821084118800603?l=xtrends.blogspot.com’//div