Trading Blogers

Market will not be ready to visit the lower boundary of the range (800 on SPX) until most of the type-1 suckers are lured into the bull buss. br /br /Remember before the GS earnings market sharply moved towards 850 into the close as if it was about to shoot towards 900 next day. But the next day, market cratered as GS got severely decimated about 20 dollars per share in a few hours.br /br /We have seen the similar market action before JPM earnings. Only difference is JPM is slightly higher in pre-market action while futures are down.br /br /Market will do the most obvious in the most unobvious way. So my advice, trade what you see, not what you feel or believe.div class=”blogger-post-footer”img width=’1′ height=’1′ src=’http://res1.blogblog.com/tracker/2192317321691025209-8371891326070821813?l=xtrends.blogspot.com’//div

Bank stress test results are coming at the end of the month and whales are selling while selling is good…considering the sector is already bloated on fake numbers.br /br / Meanwhile, after the shocking numbers from invincible WMT, today INTC and LLTC gave another meaning to what xTrends were telling you …. test of sub-600.br /br /Like I said months ago, this will no longer be a credit problem after the epidemic spreads through the system. From small businesses to large international companies like INTC, IBM etc , they are all on the same bus down to El Paso. br /br /Regarding SP trading, a href=”http://xtrends.blogspot.com/2009/04/congestion-between-800-850-continues.html”like I said earlier today/a, we continue to congest between 800-850 until the bulk of the earnings are out. We tested the upper boundary with brief penetration towards 860 which cleaned out the stops. This occurred during the fake bank earnings, and it also helped to clean more shorts from the system. Now we shall test the lower boundary of the range on tech earnings which are overly estimated. br /br /Staying short ES / SP from 850 area, roundly roundly it goes…div class=”blogger-post-footer”img width=’1′ height=’1′ src=’http://res1.blogblog.com/tracker/2192317321691025209-4899306750793609025?l=xtrends.blogspot.com’//div

Like I said, the market will trade within this range during the earning season with brief intraday penetrations (upto 860 and down to 790) of upper and lower boundaries to trap and lock and run the stops. br /br /It is no surprise that we have visited the upper boundary during the fake bank earnings. I strongly believe we will visit the lower boundary during the coming tech earnings which are overly estimated.div class=”blogger-post-footer”img width=’1′ height=’1′ src=’http://res1.blogblog.com/tracker/2192317321691025209-1243290937352335422?l=xtrends.blogspot.com’//div

That is the end of this bear market, the final leg of this bear market, which we are 100s of SPX points away. American public is unfortunately once again lured into the belief that things have turned for the better and a new bull market has began. The same game, different players. From Bernanke to Greenspan to Bush to Paulson… These people cost some of the average Americans more than their total life savings. br /br /Acceptance did not come until SPX dropped below 1000 where we saw some geniuses like a href=”http://xtrends.blogspot.com/2008/10/collapse-of-market-fundamentalism.html”Buffet and Hussman/a calling for the end of the bear market and attractive valuations. For a moment It confused me but like all other human beings, my thought process is adaptive. Just like how the market is an adaptive dynamic entity. In March SPX plunged to 670 where I a href=”http://xtrends.blogspot.com/2009/03/covered-sp-and-es-below-670.html”covered all my short positions/a but I knew it was not over. br /br /Up until now, once again, the same old tricks has been played by a modified team masterfully. But this time, they used not only what they have in treasury, but everything they can get from public. This is where the death of market fundamentalism becomes obvious because we shall observe the fact that current valuations and numbers has been adaptively changed in time. That is why the coming sell off will be astonishing, nothing to hang on, no hope to hold on.br /br /At this point anything that implies otherwise will not make any sense to me because almost everything I looked at confirms what I said. That is, trend studies… Trends are the only tool that show you the faith with high accuracy. Because these lines create your sentiment, market internals, shape your oscillators… Because trends are created by the economic realities.br /br /I watch almost all sectors and indices along with 100s of major components. When we have this many stocks and indices back-testing xTrends, the market always formed a massive top that lasted months to say the least. Even Shanghai Stock Exchange showing a 50% sell off from here on by 2010. br /br /The current trading range on SPX (800-850) will be the last deception on your charts. That is, the market will likely move within this range in a way that it will give the impression of invincible strength. Several upside and downside penetrations will occur during the process to trap and lock. This will eventually unclog the system for the next downtrend. br /br /The last thing, which is not related with the topic but some readers. At the beginning of April, I recognized that there will be a lengthily topping process. Therefore a href=”http://xtrends.blogspot.com/2009/04/covered-es-and-sp-780.html”I covered my premature short positions at 780/a then a href=”http://xtrends.blogspot.com/2009/04/fully-short-sp-and-es-from-840.html”shorted at 840/a to a href=”http://xtrends.blogspot.com/2009/04/covered-remaining-50-es-sp-811.html”cover around 810/a. I went a href=”http://xtrends.blogspot.com/2009/04/long-es-803.html”long around 800/a. Now I am short right below 850. All of these moves were timely and profitable unlike what some trolls try to advertise in media. br /I will not talk about why these people do it because the psychological part of the market is complicated but there is always a causal connection in human behavior. Only reason I can think of is the punishment of the market. Position and risk management is where we say devil is in details. I don’t know how many people wants to see xTrends as a trading service rather than a financial blog?div class=”blogger-post-footer”img width=’1′ height=’1′ src=’http://res1.blogblog.com/tracker/2192317321691025209-6132766163754417121?l=xtrends.blogspot.com’//div

SP tested the upper boundary of my trading range after visiting 800 two days ago.br /br /No matter what the news and rant could be, the market is doing what it wants to do. br /br /I expect the market to gap down on Monday. Some indices will fill the gap but some will not. Those indices with climactic action into the close will likely not fill their gaps on Monday. br /br /Like I said in my earlier post, Wells Fargo, like many other banks today I believe topped out. br /br /I am trading according to this SP range.br /br /I am fully short SP /ES from 845 just like I was fully long at 803 two days ago.div class=”blogger-post-footer”img width=’1′ height=’1′ src=’http://res1.blogblog.com/tracker/2192317321691025209-4735689261852308727?l=xtrends.blogspot.com’//div

It is a well engineered, government supported manipulation that Well Fargo , unfortunately, reported 0.55, a fake number, still 10 cents below expectation.br /br /But the FASB rule change allows them to report it like this. They can state a false net income number, as long as they disclose the writeoffs in brackets down below.br /br /The stock is under tremendous distribution since the open, despite the fact that this is a pre-holiday trading day. br /br /WFC, considering a PE ratio of 16 which is over the top given the current conditions, is worth only $8 today. However the market doesn’t only price today’s conditions but 6+ months future. br /br /So WFC today is worth $2-$3 like all other major banks you know of.br /br /Here is the thing you should be careful. Conventional wisdom today changed. Masses now think that they will get the same reaction after all other bank earnings. There is no free lunch in this business. If the market unloads WFC after the news, which is the current case, this mind-set will be a trap to the broke-house. Because these banks may not see these prices for the rest of their business lifes.br /br /So within the grand schema I gave yesterday, SP500 continues its congestion within 800-850 range until earnings season is over. Therefore I am shorting the upper boundary and buying the lower boundary of the range during this time frame.div class=”blogger-post-footer”img width=’1′ height=’1′ src=’http://res1.blogblog.com/tracker/2192317321691025209-1571714541570046906?l=xtrends.blogspot.com’//div

If today was not a pre-holiday trading, Wells Fargo would close negativediv class=”blogger-post-footer”img width=’1′ height=’1′ src=’http://res1.blogblog.com/tracker/2192317321691025209-7160039696719872727?l=xtrends.blogspot.com’//div

I have other important things to do for the rest of the day. Market is slow, it is not worth for additional 2 points. See you later.div class=”blogger-post-footer”img width=’1′ height=’1′ src=’http://res1.blogblog.com/tracker/2192317321691025209-706179255244483431?l=xtrends.blogspot.com’//div

Like I said yesterday, I think SPX is congesting between 850-800 area during the earnings.br /br /We have tested the lower boundary of the range last night. I have 2 hours sleep as I stayed awake all nite to help bulls. I think immediate target for ES is around 828.div class=”blogger-post-footer”img width=’1′ height=’1′ src=’http://res1.blogblog.com/tracker/2192317321691025209-2254569962838418326?l=xtrends.blogspot.com’//div

upto 811… my little contributionbr /br /Edit:br /I was a freshman in high school when this movie was released. I am a huge leg man, she has awesome legs. I wished Teri wasn’t wearing the tights in this scene br /br /object width=”425″ height=”344″param name=”movie” value=”http://www.youtube.com/v/x8Wcmbk_a1Qhl=enfs=1″/paramparam name=”allowFullScreen” value=”true”/paramparam name=”allowscriptaccess” value=”always”/paramembed src=”http://www.youtube.com/v/x8Wcmbk_a1Qhl=enfs=1″ type=”application/x-shockwave-flash” allowscriptaccess=”always” allowfullscreen=”true” width=”425″ height=”344″/embed/objectdiv class=”blogger-post-footer”img width=’1′ height=’1′ src=’http://res1.blogblog.com/tracker/2192317321691025209-1763852949398500409?l=xtrends.blogspot.com’//div